At present, it is the new corn market, starch wholesale manufacturers, the market should be bearish, but the domestic corn starch spot price has achieved rapid growth, after the holiday, the price rose 150~200 yuan / ton. Among them, the price of starch enterprises in Shandong is soaring. The current mainstream price is 2630~2680 yuan/ton, and the highest price has reached the highest point of the year. So why is there such a sharp rise in the price of starch? How much room for growth in the follow-up?

Chen Jie, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, pointed out that the recent strong push for domestic corn starch spot prices mainly comes from the passive pull of raw corn. After the National Day, the corn market is reluctant to sell, and the price of corn is rising, not only recovering all the previous declines. The high-end price also broke through the 1 yuan mark.

Chen Jie further pointed out that, first of all, this year's farmers' reluctance to sell is stronger than last year. Generally, dry food for sale and high prices are re-exported in order to obtain higher returns. Secondly, this year's national reserve bank rotation grain purchase time is one month earlier than last year, and the purchase price is generally higher, boosting the market's bullish confidence. Thirdly, in order to absorb the passive situation brought by the high-level grain and replenishment in the later period, some grain merchants and feed enterprises took the shot ahead, and began to reserve stocks soon after the new grain was listed, which made the situation of the market grain source more tight.

In addition to the strong support of the original grain, another important reason for the increase in corn prices is that the supply and demand pattern in the spot market has always remained tense. Chen Jie pointed out that consumer demand in the downstream food and paper industry is warming up, and the purchase and sale of factories such as the addition of vermicelli flour to the fans is strong, and the enthusiasm of traders for stocking is improved. In addition, under the stimulus of price increase, most enterprises have no inventory and sales pressure, and they are sold with them. In recent months, the social inventory in North China has continued to decline, up to only 103,000 tons.

For the future corn starch price trend, Chen Jie believes that it should be considered from three aspects. In terms of raw materials, the corn market in North China is still in short supply, the demand for deep processing is strong, and the grassroots reluctance to form a strong opposition. In addition, the northeast grain source is difficult due to the small amount and logistics capacity. A large number of inflows into the North China supplement market, so the price of corn in the market will remain strong. The tight supply and sales situation in the short-term corn market is difficult to alleviate, the cost pressure of starch enterprises remains high, or the price of starch is maintained at a high level.

On the supply side, it is expected that in early November, under the influence of the industry's lucrative profits and strong market conditions, starch manufacturers will be more motivated to start work, and the overall supply of the market will remain stable. However, due to the limited arrival of corn, individual SMEs may be subject to There was a slight fluctuation in the start of the supply of raw materials. Recently, the manufacturers have received more pre-receipts in the early stage, and the situation of tight supply in the market is difficult to alleviate.

In terms of downstream demand, the current high price of the factory is close to 2,700 yuan / ton, and the transportation cost is increasing. Therefore, the market in the sales area is under pressure. It is difficult to digest such a large increase in a short period of time. The cautious attitude is strengthened and some demand continues to increase. Restricted, the market new single sign is not good, temporarily consumes inventory, and the enthusiasm of the manufacturer's price continues to rise is therefore suppressed.

Chen Jie believes that from the current market situation, the low-end price of starch enterprises will continue to rise slightly in the short-term with the cost, and the range will be between 20~50 yuan/ton, while the price of high-end products will be raised cautiously or temporarily maintained. In the trend, manufacturers focus on pre-orders and wait and see the acceptance of the downstream market. From the medium to long-term point of view, after the price surged, it was reverted to the rational price range. However, the magnitude of the correction may be affected by the reluctance of the corn market and the tight supply and demand of the spot.